Should the sports education and training industry cheer for the


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No matter how much criticism is made of education and training institutions, tal and New Oriental are the products of the times. Zhang Bangxin and Yu Minhong are entrepreneurs who once grasped their destiny under the great changes. At the moment, they must also be thinking about the changes under the great changes.


As practitioners in the sports industry, I sincerely hope that we can catch this "big pie", strengthen and expand China's sports industry, truly make China a sports power, and finally achieve the goal of strengthening the people through sports.

Yiwen / Su
Editor / Luo Da, Yin Haonan

As the "double reduction documents" flowed out, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks and education stocks plunged one after another.


When the Hong Kong stock market got the news, there was still uncertainty and better expectations for relevant policies. When the US stock market began, the pessimism had been gradually amplified.


Among them, the leading enterprise "tal" closed down by a record 70%, and its market value evaporated $9 billion overnight, and $55 billion (360 billion yuan) from its peak in February this year. All other leading education stocks were spared, while the unicorn operation gang and ape counseling in the primary market fell instantly from the valuation peak of tens of billions of dollars, which is really sad for the education and training industry.


01

The development of education and training industry is the need of the times


Calm down and see if the "double reduction of official documents" is not the key. I believe there is basically no luck in the follow-up policy implementation. Even if we can find some market gaps and new market opportunities, we cannot predict.


However, as we know from the past, if you want to better embrace the future, you might as well take a look at some major educational reform nodes since the reform and opening up:


Drawing: Eco kryptonite

It is not difficult to find that since 1977, China's largest educational reform and events have been related to "colleges and universities".In addition to compulsory education, there do not seem to be so many major reform measures in primary and secondary schools at this stage. Of course, the changes in the national economic situation and the college entrance examination system have been affecting primary and secondary education, but also guiding the development of the teaching and training industry.


1After the state sent students to study abroad in 1978 and the deepening reform in 1992, more and more people wanted to go abroad, so there was an examination and training institution such as New Oriental. Then, the expansion of college enrollment in 1999 and the independent enrollment of colleges and universities in 2001 enabled more children to enter colleges and universities, while their parents experienced a drastic change in society and rapidly accumulated strength in the rapid economic development. Therefore, xuersi, the predecessor of Tal, was born in 2003.

Everyone lives in the times. The rise of education giants is also the need of the times and the epitome of the times.




02
Dispute between fairness and efficiency
 
The syllabus of nine-year compulsory education is based on educational equity,Coupled with the increasing investment in education resources, China has the world's top 30 low illiteracy rate (2.67%).


According to the data of the seventh census, among the current national population, the proportion of people with university education (college degree or above) accounts for more than 15.4% of the national population; Having high school (including technical secondary school) education accounts for about 15% of the national population; About 34.5% of the country's population has a junior high school education; The population with primary school education accounts for about 24.77% of the national population.
 
In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the speed of urbanization has kept pace with it.

In 2020, the rate of urbanization of registered residence population was 45.4%, which is 14.21% higher than that of ten years ago. Moreover, the main proportion of China's urbanization is in the southeast coast and first and second tier cities, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The resident population increased by 7.13 million and 5.97 million respectively in the past decade, Hangzhou increased by 3.23 million, Suzhou increased by 2.28 million, and even Xiamen increased by 1.63 million in the past decade, with an increase rate of 46%.
 
From the combination of the above two paragraphs, the fair education policy and the rapid growth of population, income and urbanization, the Beipiao and "Haipiao" in the first and second tier cities see the real possibility of knowledge changing their fate, and as the "new elite" of this society, they have enough payment ability to cope with education expenditure.


Even so, compared with the surging demand, the supply side is not so optimistic - although educational resources are also increasing, the contradiction between supply and demand is still very obvious.

2The number of full-time teachers in Colleges and universities at all levels has increased from 19.94 million in 2020 to 8.74 million in 2020, which is also a small increase from 19.94 million in 2020.
 
In order to get the first qualification on the single wooden bridge, a large number of after-school training institutions have emerged.


Whether it's internal examination or selling anxiety, parents are in the torrent of the times. They will tend to choose efficiency training outside school, because there is strong competition in the rising channel.


Before the "double reduction" policy, an ideal setting is to control fair and inclusive education in the stage of compulsory education and divert vocational education, but this method has also been questioned, because the stratification of "early promotion" and "high promotion" will advance the selection of elites and lead to the early end of inclusive education.


Finally, the dispute between fairness and efficiency ended at sunset on July 23-24, 2021. The "double reduction document" was issued and the boots fell to the ground.


In this regard, various analysis articles have sprung up. The general statement is that under the existing social system, fairness comes first. As for the education reform that can overcome house prices, improve fertility and promote consumption, it will not be evaluated. It is basically a backward extrapolation from the results, which is relatively one-sided and does not have complete logic.

Compared with logical thinking, the feedback of the three typical groups around the author in this event makes the social thinking triggered by this event more concrete.

First, the investment group, AI Hong.Because government regulation and market behavior are fair and efficient PK to some extent, while investment pursues the capitalization behavior of high-efficiency transformation, which is also the biggest problem faced by the investment industry;


At the same time, parents have different opinions.Parents who have participated in a lot of training have been encircled. What can idle children do without after-school training? What should I do?


Finally, the sports group applauded.It is said that "a good day for physical education and training is coming", because non discipline education and training is the greatest possibility for the transformation of the original education and training institutions. Finally, capital will see that this is a sweet pastry - don't be in a hurry for fun, is that really the case?


03
Next, is it really the sports education and training industry?

Coincidentally, on the day of the outflow of the "double reduction official documents", the Tokyo Olympic Games, which has experienced hardships and thousands of turns, began. More coincidentally, Yang Qian, who won the first gold for China, comes from Tsinghua University, which is a typical case of individual teaching integration.


Therefore, practitioners in the sports industry saw the opportunity and believed that "in non subject education, sports must be the first choice for transformation". So, can sports education and training catch the "big pie" after the reform of the education and training industry?


The Derby of Wudaokou in the north of Qing Dynasty in Cuba, brushing the screen of the sports circle


Where did the opportunity of the previous education reform come from? In fact, the answer is very clear - the college entrance examination is a baton.The direction of the college entrance examination guides the direction of the education system. At the same time, the change of colleges and universities affects the change of employment or occupation.


A well circulated online article puts forward a view that "double reduction" is a political need and the next chess game of future development, and education reform is an important point of breaking the situation, which is "high morals". Although we can't agree with many views in the article, especially the way of demonstration, it is essential to understand the government's thinking on national development.


Further analysis, if the college entrance examination is still used as the baton, there are problems in the two existing exports of physical education teaching and training.


First, entrance and exit.


How high is the recognition and acceptance of sports specialties in the college entrance examination and universities?


In 2019, a total of 287 colleges and universities in China were qualified for high-level sports teams, less than 10% of the total number of colleges and universities in China. In 2017, the Ministry of Education issued the implementation opinions of the Ministry of education on Further Strengthening the construction of high-level sports teams in Colleges and universities, which stipulates several points:The enrollment proportion of high-level sports teams shall not exceed 1% of the total undergraduate enrollment; In principle, the number of sports team projects held by colleges and universities with construction conditions shall not be more than 5.


There are three types of candidates in the admission conditions. Basically, the conditions are more stringent. Class I and class II candidates are professional athletes and the main source of students admitted to high-level sports teams,Under this condition, there are very few sports students who can enter colleges and universities every year;


Second, career export.

In addition to the original enrollment of high-level sports teams, there are a large number of sports graduates every year. According to the data of a periodical literature, the one-time employment rate of key sports colleges and departments is no more than 20%, and that of ordinary sports colleges and departments is no more than 10%.


why?

The reason is simple: there are too few relevant jobs in society, the overall scale of the sports industry is not large enough, and there are not enough employment opportunities.


Secondly, we need to return to the debate between inclusive education and equity vs elite efficiency. From the perspective of long-term development, the integration of sports and education we need is not to train talents for the sports industry, but to hope that more children can be strong and develop comprehensively.


The "double reduction document" basically sealed the off campus training of subject education, but left an opening for off campus training of non subject education, which seems to give physical education education education and training institutions an opportunity. However, from the actual situation, if you spend a lot of time on physical exercise in primary and secondary schools, you will certainly not be able to meet the needs of subject examination for junior high school entrance examination and senior high school entrance examination in the short term.


In this case, the cost performance of physical exercise training is far less than that of subject training.


Extended reading:This time, sports really entered the college entrance examination!

Another key external factor has not been paid attention to, but it does exist, that is, cultural gene and social public opinion guidance.

Since ancient times, we are more like a society that values literature over martial arts. "We are not afraid to learn mathematics, physics and chemistry well all over the world", while sports only "enhance people's physique". The previous generation experienced less physical exercise. In my generation, there was some special physical exercise only after high school.


What about the next generation? They do have more physical exercise since childhood,However, sports has not become one of the mainstream cultures of the society. This orientation will gradually change as it gradually becomes the main consumer group of the society after 90 and 00. Of course, the premise is that the orientation of public opinion is to really infiltrate sports into people's daily life.



04
Physical education and training, self-criticism


Regardless of the change of external conditions, whether it is the reform of the mainstream education system, the change of social culture, or the change of mainstream consumer groups, in our view, in the face of the torrent of the times, or the "big pie", what the sports education and training industry needs to do is still "look after itself" and find the answer to the problem from itself.


From this point of view, we are planning a more micro and detailed content, but we didn't expect the boots to land too fast. Therefore, in the fourth part of this paper, we don't expand too much, just provide more dimensions of thinking, and leave the presentation of more details to the next content.

First, the ability of physical education teaching and training in schools.

Physical education in primary and secondary schools provides fair education content, so physical education is basically game class. In fact, this gap is larger than discipline education. The content of discipline education in school basically meets the needs of basic education, while physical education in school, whether from teachers or teaching materials, can not meet the real needs of physical education.


In the final analysis, sports training needs science and system very much.


In the campus, at present, only basic physical fitness and physical fitness training can be achieved (at present, most of them are difficult to achieve, so there will be a large number of children's physical fitness education and training institutions), but special training may only be completed in a few major items, such as foot basketball.

Therefore, this requires the sincere cooperation between the Ministry of education and the General Administration of sports to formulate a physical education outline truly suitable for Chinese primary and secondary schools and colleges, and provide sufficient funds to meet the training and competition needs of special sports teams in schools.


Second, the ability of out of school sports training institutions.

As we all know, the scale of external sports teaching and training institutions in the market is not large at present, except for the small number of consumers, the standardization of teaching ability, the level and supply of coaches and so on,The biggest difference between sports education and training institutions and discipline education and training institutions lies in the training venue. The venue efficiency of discipline education and training institutions is completely higher than that of sports education and training institutions.


According to the 2019 national sports venues statistical survey data released by the General Administration of sports in 2019, the per capita stadium area in China is only 2.08 square meters, while that in the United States and Japan are 16 square meters and 19 square meters respectively. The site area held by social institutions is less than 20% of the overall area.

Therefore, none of China's sports education and training institutions can expand their scale and have no good profitability.


Data from enterprise investigation


The case here is that after the main venues were recovered by the government, the income and profits of Wanguo sports, a leading enterprise in sports education and training, fell sharply. Huaxing brilliant, a leader in ice hockey education and training, and Stonehenge, a leader in football education and training, are on the verge of bankruptcy or basically bankrupt, which is also greatly related to the venue problem.


These problems also put forward a key proposition. The construction of sports venues, the opening of existing venues and the improvement of the use efficiency of venues must be done well. Don't put the annual sports expenditure on the construction of large venues, but really solve the venue problem of national sports.


Third, the division of labor and cooperation inside and outside the school.


How to clarify the relationship between in-school education and training and out of school education and training is what all education and training must face, and physical education and training is the only globally verified model.


There is no extracurricular Discipline Training in the European and American education system, while Japan and South Korea have, but the ability of school physical education teaching and training in Japan and South Korea is far beyond the current situation in China.


No matter what kind of system, in terms of physical education and training, the school needs to do a good job in basic physical fitness training and special training, while social physical education and training institutions meet the special inclusive training and upgraded professional training. Then, return to the education system, or develop in the echelon of the professional system at the same time, and finally integrate with the market-oriented professional sports to form a large sports consumption market.



ECOSPORTS


The equity and efficiency of education are not absolutely opposite, but they will have different emphases in different stages. As a practitioner in the sports industry, especially in the sports education and training industry, I want to seize the tide of education reform,One basic point must be made clear: don't see the limitations of the discipline based teaching and training industry and think that the opportunity of sports is coming.

Because opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared.


These preparations are not only those venues, students and coaches we have in hand, but also those that can accept the "big pie" falling from the sky. This includes the understanding behind the policy, the sensitivity and advance layout of environmental changes brought by policy implementation, including changing the thinking pattern in the original environment, and making rational use of the power of social public welfare and capital.


A few days ago, an education practitioner sent a circle of friends and wrote these four sentences:


Look at problems from different angles

Understand national conditions and conform to national policies

Insight into the inner and close to value

Crisis first opportunity, change situation, new situation


No matter how much criticism is made of education and training institutions, tal and New Oriental are the products of the times. Zhang Bangxin and Yu Minhong are entrepreneurs who once grasped their destiny under the great changes. At the moment, they must also be thinking about the changes under the great changes.


As practitioners in the sports industry, I sincerely hope that we can catch this "big pie", strengthen and expand China's sports industry, truly make China a sports power, and finally achieve the goal of strengthening the people through sports.




Special author: Su Yi

Sports industry investors


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